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For weeks, the world has watched and waited as the 2020 U.S. Election campaign unfurled with a turbulence rivalled only by the year's historic market volatility. The votes have been counted and according to the U.S. electorate, Joe Biden has won the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. But not so fast - the results are being contested by current President Donald Trump.
Trump and his legal team's efforts to challenge the election results in several states through the court system has gained little momentum, and it is widely expected that Biden will assume White House occupancy in January. An important unknown still hanging in the balance is the final composition of Congress, and more particularly the Senate, and this will remain undecided until January.
Why is Senate control so important?
A split Congress would likely mean gridlock for Biden in the form of significant hurdles to policy achievement and a reliance on executive orders during his term. Markets have responded positively to a presumptive Biden presidency and the probability of continued Republican control of the Senate.
Under this scenario, it is less likely that Biden and the Democrats can pivot to a more leftist agenda, which would likely mean higher proposed taxes on corporations (impacting corporate profitability) and capital gains, and increased taxes on high income earners. Against this backdrop markets have, so far, been strong and a mollified U.S. foreign policy approach under a Biden presidency, should also benefit much of the world’s financial markets. This is especially true for emerging markets, as the threat of tariffs is significantly reduced.
The latest Current Perspectives
As always, TD Asset Management Inc. has you covered with extensive analysis and insights. We recently released our most recent version of Current Perspectives titled Donald Possibly Trumped. In it you will find useful insights that cover:
- The importance of Senate control
- What a Biden win could mean for markets in the short and long term
- TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee (WAAC) Perspective on the election result impact on portfolios
For more election focused resources, check out our website.
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