Market update: oil above $100

In our Investment Perspectives: Middle East Conflict, our investment teams at TD Global Investment Solutions (TDGIS) referred to energy prices as the primary source of potential risk to global markets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices have risen approximately 50% since the conflict broke out, with WTI oil trading around $100 at time of writing on March 9. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and shipping disruptions persist. Storage capacity constraints are emerging in several Gulf states, increasing the risk that energy production may be forced offline if bottlenecks persist.

Global equities and government bonds have sold off modestly in tandem, reflecting concerns that higher energy prices could reinforce inflation pressures and lead to tighter financial conditions. Compounding inflation concerns is a weaker than expected labor market report on March 6 and increasing reports of liquidity challenges in private credit markets.

While volatility has increased, movements in the S&P 500 Index and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds remain orderly rather than disorderly, consistent with a repricing of risk rather than signs of systemic stress. Outcomes remain highly variable and subject to rapid change.

Energy markets remain the key variable for the global economy

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the risk profile has shifted from a short lived disruption toward the possibility of extended supply constraints. The global economy today is less oil intensive than in prior decades, and we believe it can manage oil prices modestly above $100.

That said, risks escalate materially if prices move toward all time highs or remain elevated for a sustained period, particularly for energy importing regions. Higher energy costs also feed directly into headline inflation and indirectly into inflation expectations, complicating the policy outlook at a time when central banks were beginning to contemplate easing.

U.S. Labor market

While the recent U.S. employment report contributed to market volatility, we believe the picture is moderate compared to the headline weakness.

Weather likely weighed on several weather sensitive sectors, temporarily depressing payroll growth. In addition, statistical adjustments played a meaningful role, suggesting the reported figure may overstate underlying weakness.

Taken together, the data is more consistent with modestly negative or broadly flat employment growth rather than a sharp deterioration in labor demand. This distinction matters, as it points to a gradual cooling in the labor market rather than an abrupt downturn.

Private credit: stress focused on liquidity, not impairment

Alongside energy and labor markets, private credit has emerged as another area of focus. The daily drumbeat around private credit stress continues, but it is important to be clear about where pressures are currently concentrated.

In our view, stress remains firmly focused on liquidity rather than widespread credit impairment. Higher rates and reduced market liquidity are creating refinancing and funding challenges at the margin, but this is not yet translating into broad-based deterioration in underlying asset quality. We continue to monitor developments closely, particularly as tighter financial conditions persist.

Key Takeaways

As asset managers, our focus remains on balancing near term risk management with long term discipline.

In this environment, we believe our diversified, high quality portfolios are best positioned to absorb volatility and, importantly, to take advantage of dislocations should risks continue to rise. History shows that periods of geopolitical stress often create opportunities.

We continue to actively assess risks and opportunities and will keep investors informed as conditions evolve.

For any additional support, please reach out to your TD Global Investment Solutions Relationship Manager.

The information contained herein is for information purposes only. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax, accounting or investment advice. Particular investment, tax or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual's objectives and risk tolerance.

This material is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. These materials have not been reviewed by and are not registered with any securities or other regulatory authority in jurisdictions where we operate.

Any general discussion or opinions contained within these materials regarding securities or market conditions represent our view or the view of the source cited. Unless otherwise indicated, such view is as of the date noted and is subject to change. Information about the portfolio holdings, asset allocation or diversification is historical and is subject to change.

This document may contain forward-looking statements (“FLS”). FLS reflect current expectations and projections about future events and/or outcomes based on data currently available. Such expectations and projections may be incorrect in the future as events which were not anticipated or considered in their formulation may occur and lead to results that differ materially from those expressed or implied. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and reliance on FLS should be avoided.

No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment. Any characteristics, guidelines, constraints or other information provided for this material is representative of the investment strategy and is provided for illustrative purposes only. They may change at any time and may differ for a specific account. Each client account is individually managed; actual holdings will vary for each client and there is no guarantee that a particular client's account will have the same characteristics as described herein. Any information about the holdings, asset allocation, or sector diversification is historical and is not an indication of future performance or any future portfolio composition, which will vary. Portfolio holdings are representative of the strategy, are subject to change at any time and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for the portfolio. It should not be assumed that an investment in these securities or sectors was or will be profitable.

The securities disclosed may or may not be a current investment in any strategy. Any reference to a specific company listed herein does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities of such company, nor does it constitute a recommendation to invest directly in any such company. Any projections, targets, or estimates in this presentation are forward-looking statements and are based on our internal research, analysis, and assumptions. There can be no assurances that such projections, targets, or estimates will occur and the actual results may be materially different. Additional information about our assumptions is available upon request. Other events which were not taken into account in formulating such projections, targets, or estimates may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance.

For Jurisdictions Outside of Canada and the United States: This information is only intended for use in jurisdictions where its distribution or availability is consistent with local laws or regulations. TD Asset Management Inc. and Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. products are also available through a network of affiliated and unaffiliated distributors. Please contact our distribution partners to find out more.

Australia: Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. (ARBN: 636409320) holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFS License No: 5308587) and is incorporated in Delaware, USA (liability of members is limited). To the extent any statements contained in this document constitute financial product advice, those statements are issued by Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. The information contained herein is intended for wholesale clients and investors only as defined in the Corporations Act of 2001.

Japan: For Japanese residents, please note that if you have received this document from The Toronto-Dominion Bank entities based outside Japan, it is being provided to qualified financial institutions (“QFI”) only under a relevant exemption to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.

If you have received this document from TD Securities (Japan) Co., Ltd., it is being provided only to institutional investors. TD Securities (Japan) Co., Ltd. is regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan and is distributing this document in Japan as a Type 1 and Type 2 Financial Instruments Business Operator registered with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau under registration number, Kinsho 2992, and a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association.

South Africa: Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. is a licensed Financial Services Provider (license number 46621) with the Financial Sector Conduct Authority. TD Global Investment Solutions represents TD Asset Management Inc. ("TDAM") and Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. ("TD Epoch"). TDAM and TD Epoch are affiliates and wholly owned subsidiaries of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.

New Zealand: This document is not an offer of financial products requiring disclosure under the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (New Zealand). This document is only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of clause 3(2) of Schedule 1 of the Act and any offer of financial products will only be made to “wholesale investors”. Neither TDAM, TD Epoch, TD Global Investment Solutions nor The Toronto-Dominion Bank are a registered bank in New Zealand.

Additional Disclosure

On September 10, 2025, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (“CME”) made findings involving The Toronto-Dominion Bank (“TD”) related to a transaction effected on the Chicago Board of Trade (“CBOT”) in June 2023. The CME determined that the transaction was executed in order to transfer a futures position between accounts with common beneficial ownership in violation of CBOT Rules 534 and 538.C. Without admitting or denying any violations or factual findings, TD consented to the entry of findings by the CME and paid a penalty of $25,000. None of the conduct regarding this matter involved Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. or its employees. A copy of the CME findings can be found here.

TD Global Investment Solutions represents TD Asset Management Inc. ("TDAM") and Epoch Investment Partners, Inc. ("TD Epoch"). TDAM operates in Canada and TD Epoch operates in the U.S. Both entities are affiliates and wholly owned subsidiaries of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. ®The TD logo and other TD trademarks are the property of The Toronto-Dominion Bank or its subsidiaries.