TD Wealth Market Brief: January 2025 Snapshot

Source: Morningstar, TD Wealth Chief Investment Office. Indices used include the Bloomberg US Treasury TR Index, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR Index, Bloomberg US Corp Bond TR Index, Bloomberg US Treasury US TIPS TR Index, Bloomberg Municipal TR Index, Bloomberg US MBS Float Adjusted TR, S&P 500 TR Index, Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, Russell 1000 Value TR Index, Russell 2000 TR Index, MSCI EAFE NR Index, and the MSCI EM NR Index. All performance is in U.S. dollars. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The indices are a tool to compare the performance of one or more indices. The volatility and performance of the indices may be greater than or less than the volatility and performance of actual investments. Indices reflect the reinvestment of dividends and income. Indices do not have fees, expenses or taxes, which would lower performance. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment.

Market Commentary

  • 1

    January Month in Review: Major market indices rebounded from year-end weakness as a broadening of returns favored some previously neglected areas of the market. International and value-style U.S. equities notably led monthly gains following more muted performance in 2024. The S&P 500 Index of large cap U.S. equities benefited from positive corporate earnings and advanced as sectors such as consumer discretionary and healthcare helped to make up for a decline in the information technology sector. The Treasury Yield curve shifted broadly lower and increasingly upward sloping as policy uncertainty weighed on the outlook for bond investors.

  • 2

    AI Competition Makes Waves: Chinese startup DeepSeek shook the markets in January, following the introduction of a low-cost AI model which seems to perform in line with the technology developed by U.S. industry leader OpenAI. This suggested that China may be closing the gap in the AI arms race much faster than anticipated leading investors to question the high valuations of leading mega-cap technology companies. 

  • 3

    Policies Move Fast but the Fed hits Pause: January marked the inauguration and start of a second term for President Trump. No time was wasted in moving forward with new policies on immigration and looming trade tariffs. As expected, the Federal Reserve remained on the sidelines, keeping policy rates on hold with solid economic growth and stable inflation raising the bar on future cuts.

TD Wealth Asset Collection Views

  • Equities – Modest Overweight

    We are overweight Equities as we expect positive earnings growth to continue to drive attractive relative returns over the medium term. While the U.S. market had a strong 2024, equity returns were broadly positive across many geographies and sectors. Earnings growth (as represented by the MSCI All Country World Index) has been partially captured by the market in valuations, and we believe current valuations are justified given the backdrop of modest economic growth.

  • Fixed Income – Modest Underweight

    As the bond market and the Federal Reserve (Fed) take stock of a stronger growth trajectory and anticipate the impact of a change in government policy, we anticipate that further Fed rate cuts will be made carefully and slowly over the next 12 to 18 months. This will likely result in bond yields remaining elevated and near multi-decade highs and, therefore, we expect modest low-to-mid single digit total returns for the bond market over the coming year. Nonetheless, the Fed has a lot of room to ease policy should macroeconomic or political uncertainties destabilize bond markets, so we expect that bonds will continue to provide stable incomes and preserve capital.

  • Cash & Equivalents - Neutral

    Recent economic trends suggest an increasing chance of transitory below trend growth. Considering this, cash can help to enhance liquidity and provide optionality to capitalize on better valuation opportunities that may emerge. Cash rates are expected to ease as short-term rates fall, but declines should be gradual.

TD Economics Key Financial Forecasts


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Forward Looking Statements  

Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking statements (“FLS”) that are predictive in nature and may include words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “believes”, “estimates” and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof. FLS are based on current expectations and projections about future general economic, political and relevant market factors, such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and capital markets, and the general business environment, assuming no changes to tax or other laws or government regulation or catastrophic events. Expectations and projections about future events are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, which may be unforeseeable and may be incorrect in the future. FLS are not guarantees of future performance. Actual events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any FLS. A number of important factors including those factors set out above can contribute to these digressions. You should avoid placing any reliance on FLS. We may not update any FLS. The indices are a tool to compare the performance of one or more indices. The volatility and performance of the indices may be greater than or less than the volatility and performance of actual investments. Indices reflect the reinvestment of dividends and income. Indices do not have fees, expenses or taxes, which would lower performance. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. 

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Investing involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Past performance is not guarantee of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.  

Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic industry conditions, and individual issuer factors. Investing involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Past performance is not guarantee of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.  

Bonds are affected by a number of risks, including fluctuations in interest rates, credit risk, prepayment risk, and inflation risk. Corporate debt securities are subject to the risk of the issuer’s inability to meet principal and interest payments on the obligation and may also be subject to price volatility due to factors such as interest rate sensitivity, market perception of the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity. High yield, lower-rated securities are subject to additional risks such as increased risk of default and greater volatility because of the lower credit quality of the issues. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal tax. However, some bonds may be subject to the alternative minimum tax and/or state or local taxes.  

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