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TD Wealth Market Insights: November 2025

Source: Morningstar, TD Wealth Chief Investment Office. Indices used include the Bloomberg US Treasury TR Index, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR Index, Bloomberg US Corp Bond TR Index, Bloomberg US Treasury US TIPS TR Index, Bloomberg Municipal TR Index, Bloomberg US MBS Float Adjusted TR, S&P 500 TR Index, Russell 1000 Growth TR Index, Russell 1000 Value TR Index, Russell 2000 TR Index, MSCI EAFE NR Index, and the MSCI EM NR Index. All performance is in U.S. dollars. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The indices are a tool to compare the performance of one or more indices. The volatility and performance of the indices may be greater than or less than the volatility and performance of actual investments. Indices reflect the reinvestment of dividends and income. Indices do not have fees, expenses or taxes, which would lower performance. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment.

Monthly Market Brief Commentary – November 2025

  • 1

    Mixed Results: Broad U.S. equities eked out monthly gains, overcoming a spike in volatility and pullback for certain technology heavyweights. Within the S&P 500 Index, we saw a rotation in sector leadership with weakness in Information Technology offset by renewed strength in the Health Care sector. Value-style equities outperformed growth while major fixed income indices continued to advance. Periodic drawdowns are a normal part of investing, and we believe a balanced approach can provide exposure to multiple drivers of return over time.

  • 2

    Bubble Trouble: Following strong year-to-date returns, investors began to question elevated valuation levels and the concentration of equity returns in a small number of AI-related companies. The pace of AI infrastructure buildout has certainly been notable, but many of the warning signs which accompanied historical bubbles have yet to truly emerge. We believe growth is currently underpinned by positive fundamentals and the ingredients for a broadening of market gains remain in place.

  • 3

    Into the Great Wide Open: The federal government reopened in mid-November as a funding agreement ended the longest shutdown period on record. It may be too early to determine the full economic impact of the shutdown, but the Congressional Budget Office estimates that a six-week shutdown could shave a full percentage point from Q4 2025 real GDP growth. While lost output should be largely recouped in the months ahead, a lack of official economic data has created greater uncertainty around the path of interest rates.

 TD Wealth Asset Allocation Views – December 2025

  • Equity – Modest Overweight

    • Global equity markets are up year-to-date, as tariff risks appear manageable, and earnings trends remain positive.
    • We remain overweight equities; while there could be bouts of volatility as valuations have expanded, government policy is increasingly pro-business, central banks are accommodative, and earnings growth remains positive.

  • Fixed Income – Modest Underweight

    • As market-based inflation expectations remain anchored, the Federal Reserve can continue to lower its policy rate to preempt further loosening of the labor market.
    • Therefore, we expect that bonds will continue to provide stable income and preserve capital.

  • Cash & Equivalents - Neutral

    • Recent economic trends suggest an increasing chance of transitory below trend growth.
    • Considering this, cash can help to enhance liquidity and provide optionality to capitalize on better valuation opportunities that may emerge. Cash rates are expected to ease as short-term rates fall, but declines should be gradual.

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Forward Looking Statements  

Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking statements (“FLS”) that are predictive in nature and may include words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “believes”, “estimates” and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof. FLS are based on current expectations and projections about future general economic, political and relevant market factors, such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and capital markets, and the general business environment, assuming no changes to tax or other laws or government regulation or catastrophic events. Expectations and projections about future events are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, which may be unforeseeable and may be incorrect in the future. FLS are not guarantees of future performance. Actual events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any FLS. A number of important factors including those factors set out above can contribute to these digressions. You should avoid placing any reliance on FLS. We may not update any FLS. The indices are a tool to compare the performance of one or more indices. The volatility and performance of the indices may be greater than or less than the volatility and performance of actual investments. Indices reflect the reinvestment of dividends and income. Indices do not have fees, expenses or taxes, which would lower performance. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment.

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Investing involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Past performance is not guarantee of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. 

Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic industry conditions, and individual issuer factors. Investing involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Past performance is not guarantee of future results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.  

Bonds are affected by a number of risks, including fluctuations in interest rates, credit risk, prepayment risk, and inflation risk. Corporate debt securities are subject to the risk of the issuer’s inability to meet principal and interest payments on the obligation and may also be subject to price volatility due to factors such as interest rate sensitivity, market perception of the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity. High yield, lower-rated securities are subject to additional risks such as increased risk of default and greater volatility because of the lower credit quality of the issues. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal tax. However, some bonds may be subject to the alternative minimum tax and/or state or local taxes. 

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