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TD Wealth Perspectives Newsletter: Fall 2025
SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS |
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Harvest Your Financial Potential
The arrival of fall brings the season of harvest, reminding us that with preparation and care, the seeds we plant today will one day bear fruit. Just as a successful harvest depends on planning and patience, achieving your long-term financial goals requires a thoughtful approach and the discipline to remain focused on your plan.
In this edition of Perspectives, we first reflect on the key events that helped to shape financial markets over the third quarter. Next, TD Epoch examines the current fixed income landscape, highlighting the potential benefits of bonds and the opportunities available to help investors construct a more balanced and resilient portfolio.
Also contributing to the newsletter, TD Wealth Strategist, Jeffrey Hunter, simplifies the complexities of Health Savings Accounts, highlighting their potential benefits, limitations, eligibility requirements, and how they can be incorporated into a broader financial plan.
As well-tended fields yield their harvest this fall, let it serve as a reminder that thoughtful preparation today can help lay the groundwork for future success. TD Wealth is here to help you cultivate your plan so you can reap the opportunities that lie ahead, bringing you closer to your financial goals.

William McFadden
Business Analyst, TD Wealth Chief Investment Office
Following a volatile start to the year, markets extended their gains in the third quarter, shrugging off policy uncertainty as the economy demonstrated resilience despite rising tariff rates. Investors remained optimistic about corporate growth prospects as businesses continued to invest, and consumer spending, while cooling, held up slightly better than expected. The labor market appears to be losing steam, however, and will be a key factor to watch as we move into the final months of 2025.
U.S. equities continued their positive momentum from the second quarter with the S&P 500 Index returning just over 8%, pushed higher by the Artificial Intelligence growth narrative and start of a new easing cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Ten out of the 11 sectors within the S&P 500 rose in the quarter, led once again by the Technology and Communication Services sectors with returns of 13% and 12%, respectively. Moreover, from a market capitalization perspective, the Russell 2000 small-cap index posted a 12% return in the quarter, lifted in part by the expectation of lower rates.
In contrast to the second quarter, international developed market equities underperformed U.S. equities, with the exception of Japan, as the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable over the quarter. Emerging market equities, however, outperformed in the third quarter, led by Chinese stocks.
The fixed income market experienced modest gains, with the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index rising 2% in the quarter. Yields fell throughout the quarter as Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, expressed an openness to cutting rates through the end of the year.
In July, Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law, providing clarity on fiscal policy. The law extends the individual tax rates established in the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act as well as other tax provisions. While the longevity of government deficits and debt remain in question, the new law promotes a pro-growth agenda including incentives to boost business and consumer spending in the year ahead.
Adding to optimism, the Fed cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 4.0% - 4.25% in mid-September. The central bank cited deteriorating labor market conditions as the rationale behind the decision. Looking ahead, the Fed has signaled more potential rate cuts to end the year, helping fuel gains in the equity market and pushing shorter-term Treasury yields lower.
Leading into the start of the fourth quarter, Congress failed to reach a funding agreement resulting in a government shutdown. The economic impact will likely remain muted unless the shutdown lasts for an extended period. It is important to note that due to the shutdown, there will be a lack of economic data releases, which may cause uncertainty in the central bank's next rate decision.
Moving forward to the end of the year, the positive outlook persists but with some caveats. Valuations in the equity market have stretched above historical averages, and longer-term issues related to fiscal sustainability and geopolitical uncertainty continue to be top of mind. At TD Wealth, we believe it is important for investors to remain focused on the long-term as volatility and uncertainty fluctuate unpredictably over time. Investors who have a focused long-term plan have historically achieved greater outcomes. When it comes to investing, it pays to be persistent.
Source: Morningstar Direct as of September 30, 2025. Returns are presented on a total return basis. Returns greater than 1 year are annualized.
TD Epoch offers a comprehensive suite of fixed income solutions to meet diverse investment goals. Offerings include high-quality US Treasuries and diversified corporate credit products, each selected to provide competitive yields and robust risk management.
Introduction: The Current Fixed Income Landscape
Today’s investment climate presents a unique opportunity for wealth management clients. Fixed income yields are elevated compared to those of the past decade, making them highly attractive for investors seeking reliable income and portfolio diversification. An allocation to fixed income can also play a complementary role in an investment portfolio alongside equities. Fixed income securities typically provide more stable and predictable income than cash, especially as interest rates fluctuate, and help to protect portfolio returns during periods of equity market volatility. By adding fixed income to an equity-focused portfolio, investors can benefit from steady income streams and reduced volatility, ensuring a more balanced and resilient approach to achieving their longer-term financial goals, even during uncertain market conditions.
Fixed Income: An Opportunity for Stable Income
Fixed income yields remain elevated versus recent history and are now even more competitive than U.S. equity earnings yields (Figure 1 and 2). Using the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield as a proxy for fixed income, valuations look compelling on a historical basis (Figure 1). This shift provides investors with the ability to diversify an equity portfolio while still earning an attractive income and mitigating some of the overall risk of an all-equity solution. With yields currently above their long-term averages, fixed income instruments can serve as a powerful tool for generating steady returns in a volatile and uncertain macroeconomic environment.
Figure 1. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P
For investors with a more aggressive fixed income objective, allocating a portion of your equity portfolio to investment-grade corporate bonds can provide the added benefits previously mentioned above along with additional expected income, when considering the yield advantage relative to the S&P 500 earnings yield (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P
Benefits of Fixed Income: Stability, Predictability, and Risk Management
One of the key advantages of fixed income is its greater stability and predictability of cash flow. Whereas equities can be subject to significant price fluctuations, fixed income securities offer regular interest payments and lower return volatility. This makes them an ideal choice for investors seeking to manage risk and preserve capital, especially during uncertain economic periods. Alternatively, while investing in cash may be a stable and prudent investment in the short term; the expected income generated by this asset class has been more volatile over time (Figure 3), particularly as the Federal Reserve adjusts policy rates. In periods of declining interest rates, such as we're in now, cash income decreases, eroding returns, and leaving investors exposed to reinvestment risk.
Fixed income, by contrast, can lock in attractive yields and help mitigate the impact of falling rates, ensuring your assets continue to work for you today and in the future. Using the 3-month U.S. Treasury Bill as a proxy for cash and the Intermediate Corporate Index to represent fixed income, it is clear that fixed income has provided a more stable income profile with the potential to generate greater wealth over extended timeframes (Figure 4).
Figure 3. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Barclays
Figure 4. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Barclays
Fixed Income as a Hedge: Recent Performance During Equity Volatility
Fixed income can also play a vital role in hedging against equity market volatility. During periods of heightened uncertainty and equity market sell-offs, fixed income securities have often provided a buffer, helping to stabilize portfolio returns. Their lower correlation with stocks means they can dampen the effects of market swings, offering peace of mind to investors focused on long-term wealth preservation. 2022 proved to be an unusual year that was challenging for both fixed income and equity returns as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased their policy rate from effectively 0% to 5.50% over only 18 months as U.S. inflation exceeded 9%. During the last year, however, fixed income investments have returned to their historically normal role and generally served to dampen equity volatility, typically providing positive returns when equity returns turn sharply negative (Figures 5 & 6).
Figure 5. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., S&P Global Inc.
Figure 6. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., S&P Global Inc.
Both charts are for the 1-year period 10/02/2024 – 10/01/2025
Corporate Credit in Fixed Income Allocations: A Source of Yield Enhancement
Incorporating corporate credit into a fixed income allocation offers portfolio construction benefits. Corporate credit can provide incremental income, as these instruments typically offer higher yields than Treasuries, while also adding diversification to returns, as the performance of credit assets is influenced by additional factors that differ from those affecting government securities. At TD Epoch we leverage the unique insights from our deep credit research team as an integral component of our portfolio construction process. Our credit analysts examine key factors of a company’s credit worthiness including stability of revenue, earnings strength, cash flow, operating and financial leverage, bank-line liquidity and access to capital markets. We primarily focus on an issuer’s ability to make timely coupon and principal repayments. The strength of the credit research process enables a more robust risk management framework and provides confidence to support longer holding periods, thereby reducing transaction costs and preserving capital.
Investors also benefit from the potential for fundamental improvement in individual companies, which can lead to price appreciation and generate higher returns over time. In recent years, many investment-grade companies have shown balance sheet discipline and have been rewarded with rating upgrades, which have significantly outpaced downgrades (Figure 7). Dedicated credit research resources can help identify companies that may benefit from improving credit metrics and thus be candidates for rating upgrades in the future.
Figure 7. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., S&P Global Inc.

Jeffrey W. Hunter
Vice President, Wealth Strategist
Growing old can really be expensive! A major reason for this is the rising costs of health care. A tax-advantaged savings tool known as a Health Savings Account (HSA) can assist you with managing healthcare costs now and in retirement. The potential benefits offered by HSAs may be substantial under the right circumstances.
Even though HSAs have been around for decades, there still seems to be a great deal of confusion about how they work. Hopefully, this article will help clear-up some of the confusion and provide you with a solid understanding of the key attributes, as well as some limitations, of HSAs.
HSAs In a Nutshell
An HSA is a tax-advantaged account that may be available to you if you are enrolled in a high-deductible health insurance plan. The account is specifically designed to help people save money for their current and future medical expenses in a tax-free manner.
Eligibility
To save money in an HSA, you must first be enrolled in a high-deductible health insurance plan (HDHP). These HSA-eligible health plans must meet or exceed certain deductible limits set by the IRS each year.
Your annual deductible is the amount that you must pay out-of-pocket for any covered medical expenses before your insurance kicks-in and begins paying for anything.
While HDHPs have higher deductibles than most HMOs or PPOs, they do come with an out-of-pocket maximum. That is the most that you will pay for any medical expenses before your insurance picks up 100% of the rest. The IRS also sets annual limits on your maximum out-of-pocket expenses for a HDHP to be considered HSA-compatible.
Assuming you are already enrolled in a HDHP that is HSA-eligible, you still need to meet a few additional requirements before you can open or contribute to an HSA. In this regard, you must also:
- Not be covered by any other health insurance plan that provides the same benefits already covered by your HDHP.
- Be 18 years of age or older.
- Not be claimed as a dependent on someone else's tax return; and
- Not be enrolled in any part of Medicare.
Tax Benefits
HSAs are tax advantaged accounts as explained below.
The first tax break comes with your annual contributions. HSA contributions are either pre-tax (if made via payroll deductions) or tax deductible (if you make your own contributions). This not only saves you taxes in the year of the contribution, but it also reduces your adjusted gross income, potentially making you eligible for certain other tax perks like the ability to contribute to a Roth IRA. The higher your current marginal tax bracket, the more money you will save.
The next break relates to the growth of your account. All earnings and growth are 100% tax deferred, meaning that your funds will grow without being subject to taxes.
Finally, any withdrawals from your HSA are 100% tax-free if used to pay for qualifying medical expenses.
There's one additional tax break, but only if you make your contributions via payroll deductions through your employer. In that case, your contribution will not only escape income taxes, but your employer will also not deduct any payroll taxes from your contributions as well. This can save you another 6.2% in Social Security taxes and 1.45% in Medicare taxes on any amount that you contribute.
Finally, unlike other types of tax advantaged accounts such as Roth or traditional IRAs, there are no annual income limits for HSAs. You can contribute to an HSA regardless of whether your annual income is $100 or $1,000,000.
Contribution Limits
The IRS does place some limits on how much you can contribute to an HSA each year. These limits are adjusted each year based on inflation. The maximum amount that you can contribute each year is dependent on the type of coverage that you have under your HDHP. For 2025, individuals with self-only coverage can save up to $4,300 and those with family coverage can save up to $8,550.
Once an HSA account owner reaches age 55, they can also contribute an additional $1,000/year to their account as a catch-up contribution.
One thing to be aware of is that the IRS treats married couples as a single tax unit. This means that both spouses share one combined family HSA contribution limit. So, even if each spouse has their own HDHP and HSA, they cannot save more than the amount of the HSA family coverage limit for that year in their combined accounts.
Some employers also make annual contributions to the HSA accounts of their employees. If you're the lucky recipient of any such employer contributions, please know that those contributions will also count towards your maximum contribution limits for the year.
Withdrawal Rules
As mentioned above, you can receive a tax-free distribution from your HSA to pay for any qualifying medical expenses. This includes any medical expenses for you, your spouse, or any dependents that you claim on your tax return.
If you are under the age of 65 and you use your HSA funds to pay for anything other than a qualified medical expense, you will pay taxes on the withdrawal plus a 20% penalty.
However, after reaching age 65, you can take penalty-free distributions from your HSA for any reason whatsoever. However, to be both tax-free and penalty-free, the distribution must be for a qualified medical expense. Withdrawals made for any other purpose will be subject to income taxes but will avoid the 20% penalty that applies to withdrawals when you are under the age of 65. So, upon reaching age 65, your HSA functions similarly to a traditional IRA or 401(k) plan. The one exception being that any distributions from your HSA to pay for qualifying medical expenses will always be tax-free.
Qualified Medical Expenses
Qualified medical expenses include any expenses that would generally qualify for the medical and dental expenses deduction set forth in IRS Publication 502. The list of IRS-approved expenses is extremely broad and includes expenses related to medical, dental, and vision care. Here's a brief list of some of the more common HSA-eligible expenses:
- All copays, deductibles, or coinsurance for your medical, dental, or vision expenses.
- Prescription drugs and over-the counter medications.
- Eye exams, eyeglasses, contact lenses, and Lasik surgery.
- Vaccines and flu shots.
- Doctor's office visits, blood tests, and x-rays.
- Dentures, dental surgery, crowns, bridges, and orthodontia.
- Physical therapy.
- Surgery (excluding cosmetic surgery).
- Hearing aids and batteries.
- Chiropractic care and acupuncture.
Most health insurance premiums are not considered qualified medical expenses. However, there are a few notable exceptions. In this regard, premiums for the following items will qualify as a qualified medical expense:
- Long-term care insurance (subject to limits based on age).
- COBRA coverage.
- Health care coverage while you are receiving unemployment compensation.
- Certain Medicare expenses, including your Part B, Part D and Medicare Advantage plan premiums (but not your supplemental "Medigap" premiums).
Versus a Flexible Spending Account (FSA)
An HSA and a Flexible Spending Account (FSA) are somewhat similar in that both types of accounts allow you to make pre-tax contributions and spend the money tax-free on qualified medical expenses. However, there are some notable differences between the two types of accounts. You cannot contribute to both, so let's review some of these differences.
One difference between the two accounts is that an HSA requires enrollment in an IRS-qualified HDHP. By contrast, virtually any health plan is compatible with an FSA.
With an FSA, you elect at the beginning of the plan year (i.e., during your open enrollment period) the total amount that you want to set aside to pay any qualified health care expenses for the upcoming year. These funds are then saved and spent on a year-by-year basis. That is why an FSA is known as a "use it or lose it" type of account. Any funds that are not spent by the end of the plan year get forfeited back to your employer.
With an HSA, you own the account, and your funds never expire even if you change employers, change your health plan, or retire. An HSA is not a "use it or lose it" type of account. Any unspent funds will remain in your account year after year and into your retirement.
HSA's offer the unique opportunity to invest the funds in your account and any potential growth accrues on a tax-deferred basis. You cannot invest your FSA funds, so whatever money you elect to contribute for the year is all that you'll get.
You also have an unlimited amount of time to reimburse yourself with an HSA. For example, let's say that you incurred a $1,000 qualifying medical expense this year. With an HSA, you have the option of being reimbursed now from your account or you can decide to pay the expense out of pocket and seek reimbursement at some time in the future. Regardless of when you decide to be reimbursed, the withdrawal from your HSA will be tax-free since it represents a reimbursement for a qualified medical expense. While this may require some effort on your part to maintain good records and copies of receipts, this extra work affords you the incredible opportunity to tap into your HSA in the future and pay for things other than qualified medical expenses on a tax-free basis. In contrast, with FSAs, you must submit receipts by the deadline set by your employer for each individual plan year.
Finally, annual contribution limits are lower for FSAs as opposed to HSAs. In this regard, the maximum annual contribution to an FSA in 2025 is $3,300 regardless of the type of health plan that you have.
Death of Account Holder
Upon the death of an HSA account holder, any amounts remaining in the HSA transfer to the beneficiary named on the HSA beneficiary designation form.
If your spouse is the beneficiary, your HSA will transfer to your spouse, and they now own the account. This provides them with all the benefits of account ownership, and they can continue making tax-free withdrawals from the HSA to pay for any of their current or future health care expenses.
You can also name your children or another non-spouse individual as a beneficiary. However, the tax benefits of the account will not transfer over to a non-spouse beneficiary. Instead, the balance in the account will be distributed to the beneficiary and the entire amount of the HSA will be included in the beneficiary's taxable income in the year of the original account owner's death (less the amount of any medical expenses incurred prior to the account owner's death that are paid from the HSA within one-year after their death).
Naming a charity as the beneficiary of your HSA is another option. In that case, the charity can receive the funds and avoid any income taxes.
Finally, if you do not name a beneficiary for your account, your estate becomes the beneficiary of your HSA. In that case, your HSA assets will pass to your estate and be included as taxable income on your final income tax return.
Choosing the Right Insurance Coverage
As explained above, to realize the benefits of an HSA, you must first be enrolled in a HDHP. This is what makes you eligible to contribute to an HSA. Accordingly, before signing up for an HSA, you first need to determine whether a HDHP makes sense for you and your family. To that end, let's begin by reviewing some of the pros and cons of HDHPs.
One of the big advantages of a HDHP is that they often have much lower premiums compared to similar plans with a lower deductible. If you and your family are in good health and don't anticipate much in the way of medical expenses, a HDHP could save you hundreds of dollars each year in the form of reduced premium payments.
Many times, HDHPs will also cover certain preventative procedures and tests without regard to your deductible and at little or no out-of-pocket costs to you. This can include things like annual physicals, immunizations, routine prenatal and postnatal care, and certain health screenings.
Another advantage to a HDHP is that it makes you eligible for an HSA. This, as we now know, provides you the opportunity to save pre-tax dollars that you can use for your current or future medical expenses.
Finally, many employer's offering HSAs also make annual contributions to the accounts of their employees. This is essentially free money that you can apply towards the costs of any of your current or future health care expenses.
Now let's turn our focus to some of the disadvantages of HDHPs. By far, the biggest drawback to a HDHP is the potential for higher out-of-pocket medical expenses if you or a member of your family requires extensive medical treatments or care. In that case, you could be responsible for all these costs up to the amount of your deductible plus any copays and co-insurance up until you reach your out-of-pocket maximum.
Another potential disadvantage is that you may decide to put off certain doctor visits and medical procedures due to the higher out-of-pocket costs associated with a HDHP. Over time, this may lead to more serious health issues and even higher future medical bills.
So, while a HDHP together with an HSA may be the right choice for many, it's not the best choice for everyone. Here are a few additional considerations to help guide your decisions.
A HDHP and an HSA may make sense for you if:
- You and your family are healthy and rarely require medical care for an illness or injury.
- You can afford to pay your deductible upfront if a medical need arises.
- You can make significant contributions to your HSA and intend to save and invest that money rather than use it to meet your current expenses.
- Your employer contributes money to your HSA account each year to cover some or most of your deductible.
Alternatively, a HDHP may not make sense for you if:
- You can't afford the high deductible.
- You or a member of your family have a chronic condition that requires ongoing treatments, care, and medications.
- You or a member of your family participate in a high-risk sport or hobby.
- You are pregnant, planning to be pregnant, or have young children.
Your HSA and Investing
We've gone over some of the key attributes and limitations of HSAs. Another benefit of HSAs is that you can invest HSA funds that you are not using to cover eligible medical expenses.
Recent data suggests that less than 10% of all HSA accounts currently have some portion of their account balance invested. By strategically saving your funds for retirement rather than spending them on your immediate healthcare expenses, you could maximize your HSA's potential for tax-free long-term growth.
Let's look at a hypothetical example. Imagine that you have a HDHP with family coverage and that you start saving and investing the maximum contribution to your HSA in 2026 ($8,750) and continue doing so each year until you retire in 25 years. Let's also assume that you can pay for any medical expenses incurred during your working years out-of-pocket so that your HSA contributions remain invested and grow at a 6% annual compound return. Finally, we'll assume a 2% annual increase in the maximum HSA contribution limit for years 2027 and beyond. Based on these assumptions, here's how much you can potentially accumulate in your HSA by the time you retire:
Years to Retirement |
Balance at Retirement |
5 |
$54,292 |
10 |
$132,598 |
15 |
$243,629 |
20 |
$399,100 |
25 |
$614,762 |
*Hypothetical results for illustrative purposes. Not indicative of any client outcome or a guarantee of future results. Investing is risky and you may lose money, including principal.
The HSA funds can then be accessed tax-free in retirement to pay for any future qualified medical expenses and to reimburse you for any qualified medical expenses that you previously paid out-of-pocket. In addition, after reaching age 65, you can then access these funds on a taxable basis for any reason without a penalty just like a traditional IRA.
Conclusion:
This article's goal is to increase your knowledge and understanding of the HSA. For more information about your specific health insurance and tax requirements, please speak to your personal tax advisor and financial advisor.
TD Wealth® does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice.
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